01 Dec 2024
RIYADH: S&P Global has projected steady growth for Saudi Arabia’s economy, forecasting a 0.8 percent gross domestic product increase in 2024 and a robust 4.7 percent in 2025.
The agency’s adjustments to its earlier forecasts reflect a recalibration of oil production assumptions, now expected at 9.5 million barrels per day in 2025, down from 9.7 million.
The Kingdom’s non-oil sector continues to exhibit strong potential, supporting Saudi Arabia’s economic diversification efforts.
S&P also anticipated low and stable inflation in the Kingdom, forecasting rates of 1.8 percent in 2024 and 1.7 percent in 2025, highlighting the country’s success in maintaining price stability amid global economic volatility.
The agency reduced its real GDP growth forecasts for emerging markets by 10 basis points for both 2025 and 2026, now projecting growth rates of 4.3 percent and 4.4 percent, respectively.
The Kingdom saw the largest downward revision for 2025, with a reduction of 60 bps, followed by Hungary and Mexico.
“In Saudi Arabia, our revision reflects lower oil production assumptions than previously anticipated,” S&P stated.
The report cited recent OPEC+ announcements and trends in global oil markets as factors behind the adjusted projections for Saudi oil output.
S&P also revised its forecasts for other regions. South Africa’s GDP growth projections were raised to 1 percent in 2024 and 1.6 percent in 2025, driven by strong retail sales and a new pension scheme boosting household consumption. While infrastructure challenges remain, ongoing reforms could enhance long-term growth prospects.
In Southeast Asia, S&P noted heightened uncertainty due to reliance on trade and slowing growth in China.
However, domestic demand remains resilient, supported by sectors like IT, finance, and a recovering tourism industry. Manufacturing, particularly electronics, continues to perform well, and inflation is under control, enabling some central banks to ease monetary policy.
S&P upgraded growth forecasts for Malaysia and Vietnam, citing strong electronics supply chains and resilient domestic demand. Vietnam also benefits from recovering financial and real estate sectors. India’s growth remains robust but is expected to moderate after April 2025 due to slowing consumer momentum and challenges in the rural economy.
The Philippines is projected to see slightly slower growth due to softer consumption, though infrastructure investment will provide medium-term support. Indonesia and Thailand maintain stable outlooks, with emerging sectors like electric vehicles and fiscal stimulus driving development.
S&P also highlighted downside risks to global growth, particularly from uncertainties in US trade policy under President-elect Trump.
While the agency assumed a modest tariff increase between the US and China, it warned that more aggressive measures could significantly disrupt global trade and demand.
Tariffs targeting additional countries could amplify these effects, increasing risk premia and tightening financial conditions for emerging markets, especially those with weaker fundamentals.
Geopolitical risks remain elevated, particularly due to the Russia-Ukraine conflict, which has escalated with ballistic missile launches.
According to S&P, this uncertainty could heighten risk aversion toward emerging market assets and impact commodity prices.